When Joshua Benton solicits these annual Nieman Lab predictions, he graciously reassures, “For the record, we don’t go back later and try to judge whose predictions were the most accurate.” Despite my prediction last year being wrong, I predict this is the year when I will finally be right.
Last year, I confidently predicted that during 2022 big brands would stop their advertising from unintentionally funding misinformation on the internet. Most digital advertising these days is delivered programmatically, meaning through an algorithm so opaque that brand managers and advertising agency executives don’t know where the ads run.
I thought I knew advertisers well enough to predict they would all react immediately as soon as they learned where their ads are running: I spent almost 30 years at The Wall Street Journal, and as its publisher I oversaw billions of dollars in advertising. I was sure CEOs and CMOs would quickly stop their ads supporting misinformation once they saw the kinds of websites their ads fund.
I was wrong.
NewsGuard analysts have found ads for thousands of brands — virtually every blue-chip company, large hospital system, university, and government agency — routinely appearing on misinformation websites and apps. We inform marketers, including by sharing screenshots of their ads on these websites. Marketers are almost always surprised to learn where their ads are running. Some top brands have taken steps to get their ads off websites that NewsGuard analysts have rated as untrustworthy, including for spreading healthcare hoaxes, false narratives about elections and Russian disinformation about Ukraine.
To my surprise, however, most brand managers shrug when they learn where their ads are running. They may figure that, with so many brands advertising on so many misinformation sites, no one brand will get blamed for the group problem.
The result of thousands of brands continuing to run ads — again, unintentionally — on misinformation sites is that an estimate of $2.6 billion a year in ad revenue funds these sites. This goldmine explains how thousands of misinformation websites stay in business. The more outlandish claims they publish, the more traffic they generate and the more advertising revenue they get. For example, NewsGuard analysts have identified 309 sites publishing disinformation about Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, including false narratives that Nazis rule Ukraine and that the U.S. operates bioweapons labs there. Many of these sites are funded by advertising from Western companies. This means companies claiming they no longer do business in Russia are funding Russian information operations targeting citizens in the West.
A good example is the website that spread the false claim that the man who attacked Rep. Nancy Pelosi’s husband, Paul Pelosi, was a gay prostitute. NewsGuard analysts found ads from dozens of name brands on the website of the Santa Monica Observer, including alongside its baseless Pelosi story. These included ads for a large American bank, the top children’s entertainment brand, a telecom conglomerate, global car-rental company, online travel site, grocery chain, and major nonprofits. This website has been on the NewsGuard advertising exclusion list for years, having previously published whoppers such as that Hillary Clinton used a body double to debate Donald Trump.
When my colleagues at NewsGuard inform brands where their ads run, some marketers do start using exclusion lists, protecting their brand safety as they remove support for misinformation. Case studies show that brands also do well by doing good: When brands stop advertising on misinformation sites and instead advertise on quality news sites, their CPM price for ads goes down and engagement with their ads goes up. The NewsGuard inclusion lists brings blue-chip advertising for the first time to many news sites serving local, Black, Hispanic, Asian and LGBTQ+ communities.
But most brands still have not taken effective steps to keep their ads off misinformation sites. Next time you see an outlandish story on a site like the Santa Monica Observer, look at whose ads are appearing on the story. You’ll likely see the most popular name brands, including those that otherwise claim to take social responsibility seriously.
NewsGuard will continue in 2023 to monitor which brands are doing their part to reduce the $2.6 billion going to misinformation sources. With 91% of Americans in a recent survey saying they worry about misinformation, it’s unsustainable that the brands targeting them as consumers will continue to be the ones funding misinformation with their advertising dollars.
Gordon Crovitz, a former publisher of The Wall Street Journal, is co-CEO of NewsGuard.
When Joshua Benton solicits these annual Nieman Lab predictions, he graciously reassures, “For the record, we don’t go back later and try to judge whose predictions were the most accurate.” Despite my prediction last year being wrong, I predict this is the year when I will finally be right.
Last year, I confidently predicted that during 2022 big brands would stop their advertising from unintentionally funding misinformation on the internet. Most digital advertising these days is delivered programmatically, meaning through an algorithm so opaque that brand managers and advertising agency executives don’t know where the ads run.
I thought I knew advertisers well enough to predict they would all react immediately as soon as they learned where their ads are running: I spent almost 30 years at The Wall Street Journal, and as its publisher I oversaw billions of dollars in advertising. I was sure CEOs and CMOs would quickly stop their ads supporting misinformation once they saw the kinds of websites their ads fund.
I was wrong.
NewsGuard analysts have found ads for thousands of brands — virtually every blue-chip company, large hospital system, university, and government agency — routinely appearing on misinformation websites and apps. We inform marketers, including by sharing screenshots of their ads on these websites. Marketers are almost always surprised to learn where their ads are running. Some top brands have taken steps to get their ads off websites that NewsGuard analysts have rated as untrustworthy, including for spreading healthcare hoaxes, false narratives about elections and Russian disinformation about Ukraine.
To my surprise, however, most brand managers shrug when they learn where their ads are running. They may figure that, with so many brands advertising on so many misinformation sites, no one brand will get blamed for the group problem.
The result of thousands of brands continuing to run ads — again, unintentionally — on misinformation sites is that an estimate of $2.6 billion a year in ad revenue funds these sites. This goldmine explains how thousands of misinformation websites stay in business. The more outlandish claims they publish, the more traffic they generate and the more advertising revenue they get. For example, NewsGuard analysts have identified 309 sites publishing disinformation about Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, including false narratives that Nazis rule Ukraine and that the U.S. operates bioweapons labs there. Many of these sites are funded by advertising from Western companies. This means companies claiming they no longer do business in Russia are funding Russian information operations targeting citizens in the West.
A good example is the website that spread the false claim that the man who attacked Rep. Nancy Pelosi’s husband, Paul Pelosi, was a gay prostitute. NewsGuard analysts found ads from dozens of name brands on the website of the Santa Monica Observer, including alongside its baseless Pelosi story. These included ads for a large American bank, the top children’s entertainment brand, a telecom conglomerate, global car-rental company, online travel site, grocery chain, and major nonprofits. This website has been on the NewsGuard advertising exclusion list for years, having previously published whoppers such as that Hillary Clinton used a body double to debate Donald Trump.
When my colleagues at NewsGuard inform brands where their ads run, some marketers do start using exclusion lists, protecting their brand safety as they remove support for misinformation. Case studies show that brands also do well by doing good: When brands stop advertising on misinformation sites and instead advertise on quality news sites, their CPM price for ads goes down and engagement with their ads goes up. The NewsGuard inclusion lists brings blue-chip advertising for the first time to many news sites serving local, Black, Hispanic, Asian and LGBTQ+ communities.
But most brands still have not taken effective steps to keep their ads off misinformation sites. Next time you see an outlandish story on a site like the Santa Monica Observer, look at whose ads are appearing on the story. You’ll likely see the most popular name brands, including those that otherwise claim to take social responsibility seriously.
NewsGuard will continue in 2023 to monitor which brands are doing their part to reduce the $2.6 billion going to misinformation sources. With 91% of Americans in a recent survey saying they worry about misinformation, it’s unsustainable that the brands targeting them as consumers will continue to be the ones funding misinformation with their advertising dollars.
Gordon Crovitz, a former publisher of The Wall Street Journal, is co-CEO of NewsGuard.
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Emma Carew Grovum The year to resist forgetting about diversity
A.J. Bauer Covering the right wrong
S. Mitra Kalita “Everything sucks. Good luck to you.”
Joanne McNeil Facebook and the media kiss and make up
Pia Frey Publishers start polling their users at scale
Juleyka Lantigua Newsrooms recognize women of color as the canaries in the coal mine
Christina Shih Shared values move from nice-to-haves to essentials
Ben Werdmuller The internet is up for grabs again
Rodney Gibbs Recalibrating how we work apart
Paul Cheung More news organizations will realize they are in the business of impact, not eyeballs
Sam Gregory Synthetic media forces us to understand how media gets made
Eric Nuzum A focus on people instead of power
Joe Amditis AI throws a lifeline to local publishers
David Skok Renewed interest in human-powered reporting
Larry Ryckman We’ll work together with our competitors
Wilson Liévano Diaspora journalism takes the next step
Ryan Gantz “I’m sorry, but I’m a large language model”
Ståle Grut Your newsroom experiences a Midjourney-gate, too
Barbara Raab More journalism funders will take more risks
Shanté Cosme The answer to “quiet quitting” is radical empathy
Jessica Maddox Journalists keep getting manipulated by internet culture
Bill Grueskin Local news will come to rely on AI
Eric Holthaus As social media fragments, marginalized voices gain more power
Janelle Salanga Journalists work from a place of harm reduction
Sue Cross Thinking and acting collectively to save the news
Jesse Holcomb Buffeted, whipped, bullied, pulled
Taylor Lorenz The “creator economy” will be astroturfed
Victor Pickard The year journalism and capitalism finally divorce
Jennifer Choi and Jonathan Jackson Funders finally bet on next-generation news entrepreneurs
Francesco Zaffarano There is no end of “social media”
Eric Ulken Generative AI brings wrongness at scale
Sarah Alvarez Dream bigger or lose out
Mar Cabra The inevitable mental health revolution
Rachel Glickhouse Humanizing newsrooms will be a badge of honor
J. Siguru Wahutu American journalism reckons with its colonialist tendencies
Matt Rasnic More newsroom workers turn to organized labor
Gordon Crovitz The year advertisers stop funding misinformation
Jody Brannon We’ll embrace policy remedies
Andrew Donohue We’ll find out whether journalism can, indeed, save democracy
Walter Frick Journalists wake up to the power of prediction markets
Jacob L. Nelson Despite it all, people will still want to be journalists
Anika Anand Independent news businesses lead the way on healthy work cultures
Brian Moritz Rebuilding the news bundle
Peter Bale Rising costs force more digital innovation
Priyanjana Bengani Partisan local news networks will collaborate
Joni Deutsch Podcast collaboration — not competition — breeds excellence
Doris Truong Workers demand to be paid what the job is worth
Masuma Ahuja Journalism starts working for and with its communities
Hillary Frey Death to the labor-intensive memo for prospective hires
Amy Schmitz Weiss Journalism education faces a crossroads
Nicholas Thompson The year AI actually changes the media business
Alexandra Borchardt The year of the climate journalism strategy
Jim VandeHei There is no “peak newsletter”
Megan Lucero and Shirish Kulkarni The future of journalism is not you
Sumi Aggarwal Smart newsrooms will prioritize board development
John Davidow A year of intergenerational learning
Laxmi Parthasarathy Unlocking the silent demand for international journalism
Amethyst J. Davis The slight of the great contraction
Mariana Moura Santos A woman who speaks is a woman who changes the world
Sue Schardt Toward a new poetics of journalism
Emily Nonko Incarcerated reporters get more bylines
Ayala Panievsky It’s time for PR for journalism
Alexandra Svokos Working harder to reach audiences where they are
Parker Molloy We’ll reach new heights of moral panic
Tim Carmody Newsletter writers need a new ethics
Leezel Tanglao Community partnerships drive better reporting
Elite Truong In platform collapse, an opportunity for community
Tre'vell Anderson Continued culpability in anti-trans campaigns
Danielle K. Brown and Kathleen Searles DEI efforts must consider mental health and online abuse
Michael Schudson Journalism gets more and more difficult
Basile Simon Towards supporting criminal accountability
Alex Perry New paths to transparency without Twitter
Michael W. Wagner The backlash against pro-democracy reporting is coming
Karina Montoya More reporters on the antitrust beat
Delano Massey The industry shakes its imposter syndrome
Surya Mattu Data journalists learn from photojournalists
Jim Friedlich Local journalism steps up to the challenge of civic coverage
Janet Haven ChatGPT and the future of trust
Anthony Nadler Confronting media gerrymandering
Joshua P. Darr Local to live, wire to wither
Raney Aronson-Rath Journalists will band together to fight intimidation
Ryan Kellett Airline-like loyalty programs try to tie down news readers
Eric Thurm Journalists think of themselves as workers
Cari Nazeer and Emily Goligoski News organizations step up their support for caregivers
Elizabeth Bramson-Boudreau More of the same
Cassandra Etienne Local news fellowships will help fight newsroom inequities
Burt Herman The year AI truly arrives — and with it the reckoning
Mael Vallejo More threats to press freedom across the Americas
Dannagal G. Young Stop rewarding elite performances of identity threat
Julia Beizer News fatigue shows us a clear path forward
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Andrew Losowsky Journalism realizes the replacement for Twitter is not a new Twitter
Kirstin McCudden We’ll codify protection of journalism and newsgathering
Jaden Amos TikTok personality journalists continue to rise
Errin Haines Journalists on the campaign trail mend trust with the public
Richard Tofel The press might get better at vetting presidential candidates
Gina Chua The traditional story structure gets deconstructed
Simon Galperin Philanthropy stops investing in corporate media
Snigdha Sur Newsrooms get nimble in a recession
Susan Chira Equipping local journalism
Jennifer Brandel AI couldn’t care less. Journalists will care more.
Lisa Heyamoto The independent news industry gets a roadmap to sustainability
Nicholas Diakopoulos Journalists productively harness generative AI tools
Upasna Gautam Technology that performs at the speed of news
Khushbu Shah Global reporting will suffer
Bill Adair The year of the fact-check (no, really!)
Johannes Klingebiel The innovation team, R.I.P.
Jonas Kaiser Rejecting the “free speech” frame
Dana Lacey Tech will screw publishers over
Sue Robinson Engagement journalism will have to confront a tougher reality
Kaitlyn Wells We’ll prioritize media literacy for children
Martina Efeyini Talk to Gen Z. They’re the experts of Gen Z.
Jarrad Henderson Video editing will help people understand the media they consume
Alan Henry A reckoning with why trust in news is so low
Sarabeth Berman Nonprofit local news shows that it can scale
Alex Sujong Laughlin Credit where it’s due
Stefanie Murray The year U.S. media stops screwing around and becomes pro-democracy
Kaitlin C. Miller Harassment in journalism won’t get better, but we’ll talk about it more openly
Jakob Moll Journalism startups will think beyond English
Esther Kezia Thorpe Subscription pressures force product innovation
Cindy Royal Yes, journalists should learn to code, but…
Ariel Zirulnick Journalism doubles down on user needs
Nicholas Jackson There will be launches — and we’ll keep doing the work
Nikki Usher This is the year of the RSS reader. (Really!)
Dominic-Madori Davis Everyone finally realizes the need for diverse voices in tech reporting
Cory Bergman The AI content flood
Christoph Mergerson The rot at the core of the news business
Zizi Papacharissi Platforms are over
Josh Schwartz The AI spammers are coming
Don Day The news about the news is bad. I’m optimistic.
Valérie Bélair-Gagnon Well-being will become a core tenet of journalism
Mary Walter-Brown and Tristan Loper Mission-driven metrics become our North Star
Mario García More newsrooms go mobile-first
Sarah Stonbely Growth in public funding for news and information at the state and local levels
Kathy Lu We need emotionally agile newsroom leaders
Molly de Aguiar and Mandy Van Deven Narrative change trend brings new money to journalism
Al Lucca Digital news design gets interesting again
Sarah Marshall A web channel strategy won’t be enough
Mauricio Cabrera It’s no longer about audiences, it’s about communities
Felicitas Carrique and Becca Aaronson News product goes from trend to standard
Kerri Hoffman Podcasting goes local
David Cohn AI made this prediction
Gabe Schneider Well-funded journalism leaders stop making disparate pay
Anna Nirmala News organizations get new structures
Tamar Charney Flux is the new stability
Julia Angwin Democracies will get serious about saving journalism
Laura E. Davis The year we embrace the robots — and ourselves
Kavya Sukumar Belling the cat: The rise of independent fact-checking at scale
Brian Stelter Finding new ways to reach news avoiders
Ryan Nave Citizen journalism, but make it equitable
An Xiao Mina Journalism in a time of permacrisis
Peter Sterne AI enters the newsroom
Jenna Weiss-Berman The economic downturn benefits the podcasting industry. (No, really!)
Jessica Clark Open discourse retrenches
Sam Guzik AI will start fact-checking. We may not like the results.